Agricultural productivity and producer behavior - Wolfram Schlenker

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• Agricultural yields have increased steadily in the last half century, particularly since the Green Revolution.
• At the same time, inflation-adjusted agricultural commodity prices have been trending downward as increases in supply outpace the growth of demand.
• Recent severe weather events, biofuel mandates, and a switch toward a more meat-heavy diet in emerging economies have nevertheless boosted commodity prices.
• Whether this is a temporary jump or the beginning of a longer-term trend is an open question.
• Agricultural Productivity and Producer Behavior examines the factors contributing to the remarkably steady increase in global yields and assesses whether yield growth can continue.
• This research also considers whether agricultural productivity growth has been, and will be, associated with significant environmental externalities.
• Among the topics studied are genetically modified crops; changing climatic factors; farm production responses to government regulations including crop insurance, transport subsidies, and electricity subsidies for groundwater extraction; and the role of specific farm practices such as crop diversification, disease management, and water-saving methods.
• This research provides new evidence that technological as well as policy choices influence agricultural productivity.